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Why it is Hard to Win in Investing
Before I start this evening, I want to say something about many investment books that I have been reading of late. In terms of information toward the stated goal of the book, there is often a lot of...
View ArticleRedacted version of the April 2014 FOMC Statement
March 2014April 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting...
View ArticleYet Another Letter from a Reader
I get a lot of interesting letters — here is another one:First, let me say how much I appreciate your blog. I started my career in sellside research covering life insurers (after interning in insurance...
View ArticleSorted Weekly Tweets
Debt MarketsLeverage Addicts Get Junk-Loan Fix With Derivatives ETF http://t.co/CWMxLXlz3v Not much different than a HY closed-end fund or a CLO $$ Jun 01, 2014Bond Market Flips the Script on Risk and...
View ArticleAvoid Illiquidity
There are several reasons to avoid illiquidity in investing, and some reasons to embrace it. Let me go through both:Embrace IlliquidityYou are offered a lot of extra yield for taking on a bond that...
View ArticleRedacted Version of the June 2014 FOMC Statement
April 2014June 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply...
View ArticleThe Tails of the Distribution do not Validate the Mean
17 months ago I wrote a post How to Become Super-Rich? Now, many of my articles are timeless — they will still have value 10 years from now. I like to write for the long-run. Teaching basic...
View ArticleRedacted Version of the July 2014 FOMC Statement
June 2014July 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months.Information received since...
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The Shadows of the Bond Market’s Past, Part I
Source: FREDAbove is the chart, and here is the data for tonight’s...
View ArticleThe Shadows of the Bond Market’s Past, Part II
This is the continuation of The Shadows of the Bond Market’s Past, Part I. If you haven’t read part I, you will need to read it. Before I start, there is one more thing I want to add regarding...
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Redacted Version of the September 2014 FOMC Statement
Photo Credit: DonkeyHoteyJuly 2014September 2014CommentsInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second...
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Volatility Can Be Risk, At Rare Times
Photo Credit: Matt CavanaghThere is a saying in the markets that volatility is not risk. In general this is true, and helps to explain why measures like beta and standard deviation of returns do not...
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Time to Chase Bill Gross?
Jason Zweig at the Wall Street Journal had a very good piece on whether to follow Bill Gross as he goes from Pimco to Janus. Let me quote one paragraph:Morningstar estimates that over the past five...
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AIG Was Broke
Photo Credit: RonThere’s a significant problem when you are a supremely big and connected financial institution: your failure will have an impact on the financial system as a whole. Further, there is...
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Inevitable Ineffective Banking Regulation
Photo Credit: Michael DaddinoI am mystified at why people might be outraged or surprised that the Federal Reserve does a poor job of overseeing banks. The Fed is an overstaffed bureaucracy....
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The Future Will Be Like The Past, Only More So
Photo Credit — Javier || Buffett believes in AmericaYesterday there was an article where Buffett was quoted on getting mortgages to buy houses. Let me quote the most relevant portion:“You would think...
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Meeting the “Bond King”
Photo Credit: ~Sage~ || King of the Beasts, eh?It was winter in early 1995, and I was wondering if I still had a business selling Guaranteed Investment Contracts [GICs]. Confederation Life had gone...
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Book Review: Financial Tales
This financial book is different from the 250+ other financial books that I have reviewed, and the hundreds of others I have read. It tells real life stories that the author has personally...
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Easy In, Hard Out (III)
Photo Credit: Lynn || Note: this picture was not picked for what its author wrote, that was a surprise to meA while ago I wrote two pieces called “Easy In, Hard Out.” The main idea was to illustrate...
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On Currencies that are Not a Store of Value
Photo Credit: Jason Wesley Upton || Of course this isn’t China…I know this is redacted, but it is advice to a reader in a really remote area of the world. You might find it interesting.I am currently...
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